Posteado por: amartinoro | septiembre 26, 2009

¿Por qué el rally bursátil a pesar de que la crisis sigue?

Una explicación la da Robert Reich (profe en Berkeley y antiguo Secretario de Trabajo con Clinton, y más cosas). A pesar de que el desempleo sigue subiendo, la restricción crediticia no se soluciona, los consumidores siguen en retirada, los empresarios se quejan del intervencionismo del gobierno (eso le dicen a Reich) etc. etc…:

The explanation is simple. The great consumer retreat from the market is being offset by government’s advance into the market. Consumer debt is way down from its peak in 2006; government debt is way up. Consumer spending is down, government spending is up. Why have new housing starts begun? Because the Fed is buying up Fannie and Freddie’s paper, and government-owned Fannie and Freddie are now just about the only mortgage games remaining in play.

Why are health care stocks booming? Because the government is about to expand coverage to tens of millions more Americans, and the White House has assured Big Pharma and health insurers that their profits will soar. Why are auto sales up? Because the cash-for-clunkers program has been subsidizing new car sales. Why is the financial sector surging? Because the Fed is keeping interest rates near zero, and the rest of the government is still guaranteeing any bank too big to fail will be bailed out. Why are federal contractors doing so well? Because the stimulus has kicked in.

In other words, the Dow is up despite the biggest consumer retreat from the market since the Great Depression because of the very thing so many executives are complaining about, which is government’s expansion. And regardless of what you call it – Keynesianism, socialism, or just pragmatism – it’s doing wonders for business, especially big business and Wall Street. Consumer spending is falling back to 60 to 65 percent of the economy, as government spending expands to fill the gap.

The problem is, our newly expanded government isn’t doing much for average working Americans who continue to lose their jobs and whose belts continue to tighten, and who are getting almost nothing out of the rising Dow because they own few if any shares of stock. Despite the happy Dow and notwithstanding the upbeat corporate earnings, most corporations are still shedding workers and slashing payrolls. And the big banks still aren’t lending to Main Street.

El estímulo no puede durar para siempre, por tanto cuando se corte el grifo público, el Dow debería caer con fuerza, según el razonamiento de Reich.

Otra explicación es más simple todavía: la caída brutal desde verano de 2007 y sobre todo a partir de septiembre de 2008 fue exagerada, produciéndose una especie de anti-burbuja que dejó a muchas empresas infravaloradas. Las subidas desde marzo simplemente vienen a traer algo de cordura al mercado, y dejando la bolsa a unos niveles medianamente razonables. Bestinver en su carta de Agosto dijo que el mercado comenzara a discriminar entre buenos valores y malos.

En 2010 lo sabremos.

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