Posteado por: amartinoro | enero 24, 2010

Más evidencias sobre la insostenibilidad del crecimiento chino

Roubini.com:

Chinese real GDP climbed 10.7% y/y in Q4 and 8.7% for all of 2009 but cooled slightly on a m/m basis. Government stimulus helped the economy exceed its 8% growth target. Consumer prices climbed further in December, rising 1.9% y/y, up from a 0.6% climb in November. Producer prices also turned positive for the first time in a year, reflecting the increase in commodity prices. Some of the momentum in fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales growth has ebbed slightly, growing 30.5%, 18.5% and 17.5% respectively (adjusting for inflation showed an even greater deceleration of retail sales). For the whole year, sales of consumer goods continued to climb at around a 16% rate, investment grew by 30%, especially in infrastructure  (National Bureau of Statistics of China, 01/21/10)

Vaya, a juzgar por los números la economía china está muy potente. ¡Y luego van algunos agoreros de turno hablando de burbujas y de que China se la va a pegar! Bah, pamplinas. Seguro que ésos son gente que tiene el dinero empeñado a que colapse China, inversores especulativos como Jim Chanos. Vamos, ocultos intereses privados de astutos capitalistas y millonarios, que quieren forrarse a costa de los demás.

Hace poco salió la cifra de exportaciones e importaciones chinas, con resultados bastante boyantes. Apuntaban a que la cosa mejoraba, debido a la anterior caída de las exportaciones debido a la crisis. Aunque las importaciones aumentaron bastante más. Mala cosa para los obsesionados con (X-M) como factor que contribuye a elevar el PIB. Ya saben: Y = C + I + G + (X – M):

China’s overall trade in December, according to figures published on Sunday by China’s Customs office, showed a stunning 17.7 percent year-on-year jump in exports, well above a forecast for 4.0 percent growth.

But imports jumped by an even bigger 55.9 percent, pushing China’s overall trade surplus in the month down by 4 percent from November instead of up by an expected 3 percent. (Reuters)

Hmmm, ¿hay gato encerrado en todo esto? Parece que sí, “Things are not always what they seem in China” (copio un buen trozo de aquí):

China’s Exports More to do with Manipulation than Recovery [China Briefing]

The news that China’s exports increased by 17.7 percent in December year-on year is impressive. So too, the statistic that China has now overtaken Germany as the world’s largest exporter. In turn, this has lead to commentary about the position of the RMB against other globally traded currencies such as the Euro and the U.S. dollar. However, in announcing that China has overtaken Germany, analysts have been jumping the gun – Germany has yet to release its own export figures for December. As in the news that in 2009 China overtook the United States as the world’s largest vehicle market make for interesting headlines, there is the matter of sustainability. Are these positions sustainable? Let’s examine both of these situations.

China’s export boom
Also overlooked in the export equation when it comes to China figures is the matter of manipulation of taxes to encourage exports. Again, this is not a sustainable situation in the longer term. China needs tax revenues to pay for the extraordinary cost of continuing its development. Yet here is where the real truth lies: China’s export boom has come largely as a result of the huge incentives given by China’s export rebate program, ….

The argument, when looking at China’s growth, is how much of this is truly sustainable. Massive fiscal handouts for vehicle and property purchases, a stock market that appears fed by loose cash rather than underlying fundamentals from its companies, and exports driven by massive tax incentives is going to be a tough act for China to keep up.

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  1. […]  –Más evidencias sobre la insostenibilidad del crecimiento chino – Enero 2010 […]

  2. Justo hoy estaba pensando en la pena que me da que Brad Setser ya no escriba en su blog. Lo dejo para ser Director de Economía Internacional en la administració de Obama.

    Es el primer blog económico que leí jamás (y tan sólo en Diciembre de 2008) y era el gran experto en el desequilibrio global de deuda americana vs ahorro chino. Creo que si te interesa profundizar en el tema a lo mejor todavía puedes encontrar algunas joyas: http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/

    • Imagino que le será más rentable trabajar en la admin Obama que escribir un blog.
      Gracias por la referencia. Me la guardo


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