Antes de empezar: ABCT=Austrian Business Cycle Theory
Acabo de encontrar un interesante artículo titulado: Austrian Business Cycle Theory and the Global Financial Crisis: Confessions of a Mainstream Economist, publicado en The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics (Primavera 2010). El autor no es un economista mainstream académico, sino un analista de inversiones (y CFA).
Lo interesante es que señala varios trabajos y recientes tendencias que se originan en el “mainstream” y que se solapan bien, al menos aparentemente, con las ideas de la teoría austriaca del ciclo económico. Pongo algún ejemplo:
Jarociński and Smets (2008), using a Bayesian vector autoregression estimate for the U.S. economy that includes a housing sector, conclude that there is
evidence that monetary policy has significant effects on housing investment and house prices and that easy monetary policy designed to stave off perceived risks of deflation in 2002–04 has contributed to the boom in the housing market in 2004 and 2005. (p. 362)
Smithers (2009) blames the financial crisis on “the actions of incompetent central bankers, who provided excessive liquidity on which the asset price bubbles and their associated absurdities were built” (p. 3).
Vogel (2010) finds that “interest-rate policy levers such as Fed funds rates appear to have some effect on the creation and sustainability of bubble conditions.”
Even cutting-edge mainstream economic research, such as that in areas of financial leverage and liquidity, does conceptually little more than developing the framework of Austrian business cycle theory. For example, mainstream economists have begun to identify links between monetary policy and financial leverage, or debt. New York Fed President Dudley (2009) recently noted that “[t]here is a growing body of economics literature on this issue that links monetary policy to leverage.” Dudley cited research by Tobias Adrian and Hyun Song Shin (2009), who identify what they call a “‘risk-taking channel’ of monetary policy,” and find that short-term interest rates—the Fed’s main monetary policy variable—are an important factor in influencing the amount of financial leverage employed by financial intermediaries.